|
|
SCGOV Storm Center
| NOAA Report Uncovers Why Some
People Don’t Heed Severe Weather Warnings |
NOAA’s National Weather Service has issued a
report that analyzes forecasting performance and public response
during the second deadliest February tornado outbreak in U.S.
history. The report, Service Assessment of the Super Tuesday
Tornado Outbreak of February 5-6, 2008, also addresses a key
area of concern: why some people take cover while others ride
out severe weather.
Dubbed the “Super Tuesday” tornado outbreak due to the
presidential primary elections held that day, 82 tornadoes raked
nine states throughout the South, killing 57 people, injuring
350 others and causing $400 million in property damage.
Jack Hayes, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service,
included a researcher from the National Center for Atmospheric
Research Societal Impacts Program on the assessment team to
examine why many people did not take action to protect
themselves.
In reviewing the public response, the team found that two-thirds
of the victims were in mobile homes, and 60 percent did not have
access to safe shelter (i.e., a basement or storm cellar). The
majority of the survivors interviewed for the assessment sought
shelter in the best location available to them, but most of them
also did not have access to a safe shelter. Some indicated they
thought the threat was minimal because February is not within
traditional tornado season. Several of those interviewed said
they spent time seeking confirmation and went to a safe location
only after they saw a tornado. Many people minimized the threat
of personal risk through “optimism bias,” the belief that such
bad things only happen to other people.
“Protecting life and property is not as simple as issuing a
forecast,” Hayes said. “A number of barriers often deter people
from making risk-averse decisions, and we want to learn all we
can to determine if there is more the National Weather Service
can do to change this.”
On forecasting performance, the assessment team found that the
National Weather Service issued warnings 17 minutes, on average,
in advance of all the deadly tornadoes. The agency’s Storm
Prediction Center had been monitoring the tornado threat for
several days. Local forecast offices forewarned communities by
issuing hazardous weather outlooks days in advance.
After interviewing local media and citizens in the stricken
areas, the assessment team determined that local communities had
received the warnings and were aware of the dangerous weather
threat. People reported receiving tornado warning information
through multiple sources, such as television news stations,
sirens, NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards or by word of mouth.
People indicated overall satisfaction with National Weather
Service performance in forecasting the tornadoes and
communicating the danger.
According to the assessment team’s recommendation, the National
Weather Service will improve wording and call-to-action
statements to more effectively convey the urgency and danger of
the message. The agency also will continue using social science
research in future service assessments to further understand
people’s interpretation of and response to severe weather
situations, and to improve public response to severe weather
communication.
Use of societal impact studies is useful for weather phenomena
other than tornadoes. In September 2008 dozens of people died
when Hurricane Ike struck Galveston, Texas, even after the
weather forecast office in Houston issued a dire warning to
residents to heed evacuation orders.
The National Weather Service routinely conducts assessments of
agency performance during severe weather events in an effort to
improve operations and determine best practices. Within days
after the weather event, the agency sends a team into the field
to interview citizens, emergency managers, the media, and others
in affected areas. The team then compiles all findings and
develops an assessment report, which contains analyses of the
local Weather Service forecast office’s performance in
forecasting the weather and communicating the public safety
threat. Best practices and recommendations are shared throughout
the agency to improve performance during future severe weather
events.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's
environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the
sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
Source: NOAA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
